Proposed 2030 census rules could leave tens of thousands of Bostonians uncounted, councilors say

The U.S. Census Bureau has proposed changing who is counted in the 2030 census, where they are counted and what the form can ask. Two Boston city councilors say the changes could shrink the city's official population and the federal money and political representation that follow it.

Council President Liz Breadon and City Councilor Ruthzee Louijeune filed an order for a hearing on the proposed rules (docket 2046). It is on the agenda for the council's Wednesday, Oct. 28 meeting. The federal public comment period closes Monday, Nov. 2.

Census counts decide how many seats each state gets in Congress, how district lines are drawn and how hundreds of federal programs divide money. In a city with many students, immigrants and renters, small changes in who is counted can add up.

What the federal proposal would do

The Census Bureau proposed the changes on Sept. 10, according to a summary from the Leadership Conference Education Fund and Census Counts. Under the proposal, people who are not U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents would be left out of the apportionment count even if they live in the United States, including international students, temporary workers, some refugees and asylum seekers, and undocumented immigrants, the summary says. The proposal would also drop questions about race and ethnicity from the main census form, bar questions about sexual orientation, and change how the bureau decides where people are counted. The bureau is also asking for comment on a legal-status question, according to the summary.

CNBC reported on Oct. 13 that critics were moving toward a legal fight over the plan. Advocacy groups are asking the bureau to extend the comment period to Dec. 10; we found no sign that an extension has been granted. The rule is not final.

What the council order says

The order describes two proposed new sections of federal regulations. One, Part 60, would set residence rules; the order says a person's residence would be based on where they spent the most days between Jan. 3 and April 1 of the census year, which it says would affect college students, green card holders and seasonal residents. The other, Part 70, would restrict demographic questions, moving race and ethnicity to the American Community Survey, a monthly sample survey of about 3.5 million addresses a year.

The order says Boston was undercounted by 25,000 people in the 2020 census, and that upwards of 80,000 people could be excluded under the proposed changes. Those are the sponsors' figures; the order does not cite a source for them. It asks the Office of Immigrant Advancement, the Election Department, the Planning Department, the Boston Public Health Commission and demographic experts to testify.

What our records show

• The undercount has come up before. At a Sept. 22 committee hearing on reopening an Allston post office, the city's director of research said every census has an undercount of hard-to-count groups, that Boston has long struggled to count residents ages 18 to 24, and that the 2020 count was compounded by COVID (watch at 34:16). Reporting on that hearing to the full council the next day, a councilor cited Planning Department figures showing Allston's population grew 7.2% in the 2020 census, compared with 2.3% citywide (watch at 1:27:39).
• The elections committee has been active. The Census, Redistricting, and Elections Committee held an election-readiness hearing Oct. 2 (meeting page), and on Oct. 7 the council adopted a resolution backing Question 4 on Election Day voter registration (docket 1805).
• Sponsors: Breadon and Louijeune are the only sponsors listed on docket 2046 so far. Colleagues often add their names when an order is introduced.

What's next

The order is expected to be referred to committee Wednesday. A hearing is unlikely before the Nov. 2 comment deadline, so the council's role may come after the federal comment period closes. Residents and organizations can comment on the proposal through the Federal Register notice; the Census Counts summary explains the changes and how to take part.